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Friday 7-6-07 DJIA closed: 13,611.68 +45.84 vs. Prior day: 13,565.84 -11.46
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 13,474.72 +6.95 vs. Prior day: 13,467.77 -1.41
(the DJIA closed above its 21-day moving average, positive and increasing)
Before the New York Stock Exchange Open
Monday July 9 Stock Market Forecast
Probability Percent of "Up" at the Close
DJIA probability of closing "Up" Monday: 72%
DIA probability of closing "Up" Monday: 35%
DIA Past 4 Mondays: Rising 60.4% / 59.5% / 60.8% / 62.2%
(Lower opening is greatest for Monday, yet this has improved!)
(DIA & DJIA are weighted differently)
Dow Jones Industrial Average Statistics (Historic High / Low)
Dow 30 + DIA: Rising 20 / Falling 11 (Positive +2 from prior day)
*(Change in Trend: "Up" from "Down" occured Friday 6-29-07)
DJIA Trend: Rising Today 61 vs Yesterday 58% (High 94% / Low 10%)
DJIA MACD: Rising Today BUY vs. Yesterday SELL ( 12,26 computation)
DJIA Momentum: Unch Today 77% vs Yesterday 77% (High 97% / Low 13%)
DJIA Volatility: Falling Today 0.25% vs Yesterday 0.27% (High 6.00% / Low -1.09%)
DJIA 50-Day Net Change: Falling Today 522 vs Yesterday 612 (High 1450 / Low -280)
*(Change in 50-Day Net Change: Falling as of Thursday 7-5-07)
DJIA Resistance Levels: Short Term 13,475 / Intermediate Term 13,711 / Breakout 13,946
DJIA Support Levels: Short Term 13,468 / Intermediate Term 13,235 / Breakdown 13,003
Conclusion: DJIA is positive for Monday and is trading above short term levels.
Institutional Investor Statistical Trends (Historic High / Low)
Exchange Insiders' Inventory: Rising Today -.04% vs Yesterday -.06% (High .29% / Low -.24%) Mean= -.02% Closed below its Mean, negative yet increasing.
Institutional Money Flows: Rising Today 45% vs Yesterday 26% (High 97% / Low 6%) Mean= 52% Closed below its Mean, negative yet increasing.
Institutional Demand: Rising Today 61.7% vs Yesterday 60.5% (High 86.84% / Low 18.65%) Mean= 52.8% Closed above its Mean, Positive and increasing.
Institutional Inventory: Rising Today 65.3% vs Yesterday 63.6% (High 81.06% / Low 25.23%) Mean= 52.2% Closed above its Mean, Positive and increasing.
Institutional Accumulation/Distribution: Rising Today -.02% vs Yesterday -.08% (High .35% / -.41%) Mean= -.03% Closed above its Mean, Positive and increasing.
Outlook Statistics: Above 50% Bullish/Below 50% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish Rising Today 61% vs. Yesterday 57% (High 89% / Low 18%) Mean= 53.5% Closed above its Mean, Positive and increasing.
Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Rising Today 88.0% vs Yesterday 84.8% (High 100.0% / Low 4.8%) Mean= 52.4% (DJIA, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100, aggregate)
10 Key ETFs: Above 0% Bullish/Below 0% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DIA: Rising Trend Today 4% vs. Yesterday -10% (High 95% / Low -59%)
SPY: Rising Trend Today 3% vs. Yesterday -13% (High 77% / Low -54%)
MDY: Unch Trend Today 13% vs. Yesterday -11% (High 91% / Low -80%)
IWM: Rising Trend Today 6% vs. Yesterday 1% (High 71% / Low -53%)
QQQQ: Falling Trend Today 9% vs. Yesterday 0% (High 54% / Low -43%)
SMH: Rising Trend Today 32% vs. Yesterday 20% (High 48% / Low -53%)
IYT: Rising Trend Today 1% vs. Yesterday -20% (High 80% / Low -72%)
IDU: Rising Trend Today -2% vs. Yesterday -9% (High 80% / Low -68%)
XLE: Rising Trend Today 12% vs. Yesterday 3% (High 69% / Low -55%)
XLF: Falling Trend Today -3% vs. Yesterday -9% (High 45% / Low -33%)
Stock Market Plurality:
100 “High” vs 0 "Low" Demand Factor of 1,000 Stock Universe (Historic High/Low)
Demand Factor "100": Rising Trend Today 121 vs. Yesterday 93 (High 367 / Low 06)
Demand Factor "0": Falling Trend Today 7 vs. Yesterday 33 (High 133 / Low 08)
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Douglas Gale, President (jdg8119@gmail.com)
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
Next Day's Advance Market Decisions:
"Not always right, just very seldom wrong."