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Updates & tips
Not always what it seems...
Article featured in the Monmouth Journal- September 5, 2008 Just heard on the 6pm news that the cute dolphins entertaining us from the river banks of Rumson and Middletown in the Navesink river - are in fact,not dolphins but more likely bull sharks. Huh? Now that must come as a surprise to all those that went out on boats, including kayaks and canoes to get up close and personal with the dolphins!! My family took the "Resourceful" out to watch them cavort, and oohed and ahhed with the best of them.It made me think a little about the local real estate market, (well lets face it, I am always thinking about the real estate market) and I saw a mini parallel. How you ask?Well, it seems to me that buyers right now do not realize they are behaving like dolphins when they could be bull sharks. Not that I know much about bull sharks, but they just sound more assertive. In a buyer's market, buyers make low offers and pretty much have plenty to choose from. This buyer's market is not working that way. Many prospective buyers are sitting and waiting - rather than taking action,making offers and see what comes back.The opportunities are out there to be eaten up. Motivated sellers, low interest rates. Sounds like the perfect feeding ground. However right now, many buyers' appear to be acting more like cute dolphins than like sharks of any description. I don't think there are any sharks that take a wait and see approach, especially not bull sharks, unless there are bear sharks?!Is it the constant media bashing that the real estate market got in the last few years that makes us view a home as purely a financial investment and pressures us to buy right at the bottom? When is right at the bottom? I have been a realtor for over 20 years and to date nobody has ever been able to predict the date of the absolute peak or the absolute bottom. What is known, is that real estate has perpetually cycled, always on the down or the up cycle. Historically it always cycles back up higher than it was before. Some real estate analysts are saying that the end of the downward cycle is close.As it is impossible to perfectly time the market the average person buying or selling will gain on one end of the transaction to offset the other. Which is important to remember that generally it balances out. Although it is weighted on the side of the upward buyer. Speculators and investors with a shorter horizon are acting now, which is another indicator that now is the time to act. I have been making offers on investment properties recently, some I won some I lost. Real Estate is obviously a large part of my portfolio and especially my retirement, although those that know me, find it hard to believe that I would ever retire!!There have been other indicators recently that the market is about to start its upswing. On a national level, existing home sales rose 15% in recent months, new home sales were also up 4.5%. Consumer confidence up 5 points in August over July.Affluent homeowners increasingly are bullish about future real estate values. “Key findings from the annual survey of the ‘luxury’ market demonstrate that the typical million-dollar homeowner is invested not only in the value of their home as a current part of their portfolios, but also see long-term gains coming from this investment,” said Jim Gillespie, president and chief executive officer, Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC. The survey polled 305 U.S. homes with a primary residence valued at $1 million ($2 million in California) or more and who had investable assets of more than $1 million. The average annual household income of this group was $754,000.Jim Weichert was also quoted recently stating that "We have reached the bottom of the housing market and will soon begin to see improvements, by and large we are turning a corner. You might be guessing, but we are sure. Now is the time to buy real estate."I think Jim is right, the Summer is always slow except for closings of properties sold in the Spring. Buyers, sellers and the realtors are focused on the beach and vacations. Once mid September rolls around I believe we will see a positive upswing.Speaking of other agencies. At a dinner party recently, one guest was surprised to hear me say something positive about another agent, his assumption being that we are all sworn enemies. Nothing could be further from the truth, we all work in cooperation with each other, and I treat my fellow realtors with respect and I get treated the same way. In fact, I have made a point in getting along with other realtors in my career, it can only help my clients. I want the the other realtors out there to want to work with me rather than shudder at the thought. I can be firm and resolute in my representation to my clients without being rude and obnoxious. Now of course there are some out there like that, and we all know who they are! As an educated consumer one of the things to research when choosing a realtor is to find out how they are perceived in the industry. It could make or break a sale.So lets all get bullish about real estate, there are future capital gains to be had at shark prices right now. If you are interested in statistics about any other town not shown here , please email.In other news, I am looking for a few good men (or women). I have invested so heavily in websites in the last few years that I have an over abundance of qualified prospects coming in every day. I only hire a select few, but I am looking to expand right now, so if you want to know more about coming a professional real estate agent. Please call or email.Carolynn Ozar-Diakon, Broker-Owner, RESOURCES Real Estate 732-212-0440www.resourcesrealestate.com.
Moving forward in this shaky economy...
Featured article in theMonmouth Journal- October 3, 2008 As market experts, economists, and political pundits weigh in with their opinion of the bail out and other assorted plans to move forward, I can only hope whatever path chosen is laced with common sense.Any fool should known that prices do not go up forever and that interest rates do not come down indefinitely. The real estate market is not a ball-it does not "bounce back" or plunge in a matter of days. It quietly and reliably cycles up around and down again and so on. In fact it is always in the process of one or the other. It is probably the best and most consistent long term investment strategy there is. I am not a stock market investor, I am a real estate investor, and I can tell you with certainty that I am looking to buy. I am making offers and buying what I can that meets my criteria.I have never been an investor in the stock market, mainly because I do not understand it will enough and my expertise and interest has always been in real estate. Sometimes, I have felt a little dumb not being a savvy stock market player, but in the last few days- I have been feeling pretty smart!I have been a broker for over 20 years and managed an office during the tough times of the late 80s, I have seen this happen before. I have some advice for both sellers and potential buyers.To sellers: We have been cycling down since the second have of 2005, and yet many sellers have been valiantly trying to achieve 04 and 05 pricing. It is not going to happen, it was not going to happen last week and it sure is not going to happen next week. If your agent has not been firmly telling you what to do...and is in the yes-ing you to death business: Get a new agent. Now is not the time for the weak. Tough times call for tough agents.\Conversely, if you have a tough agent, you are receiving ongoing communication and you know that truthfully there is nothing that the agent is not doing...don't jump ship from one agency to another. Sit down with your agent and the broker and discuss options and ideas. Frankly, agencies spend a lot of money on marketing a property and jumping ship-if you are not following their advice-it is definitely not going to help. If the price is not right, it will not be right with another agency. If the house does not show well, it will not show well with another agency. Same thing with showing...now is not the time to be coy; buyers are in shorter supply they have more to look at. Make sure you can get them in your property without any obstacles. Such as, "try back tomorrow, 24 hr notice, pick up key from office" etc. Get as showing friendly as possible. Is it inconvenient? YEP. It is a necessary inconvenience if you want to sell your house. Your tough agent should be telling you that.To Buyers: Don't overlook this opportunity that is on our hands: low interest and lowering prices. Don't try to calculate the bottom, it could be tomorrow-it could be 6 months from now. Whenever it is, it will be irrelevant if the interest rates have gone up! I have noticed that the Fed did not lower interest rates as a response to the financial news this week. The Fed will not lower them forever. In fact, during previous recessions the interest rates have gone up. Use this time to make great deals, like the investors are. Just remember that on the whole-real estate is a long term investment, and when it is also a short-term investment-that's a beautiful thing. Don't buy above your means, don't borrow based on tomorrow's pay check. There is more to choose from today than in previous years, and there ARE lenders that are willing to lend money. Not every bank forgot the common sense practice of making smart loans to qualified buyers.In summary, whether a buyer or a seller, be smart, use some common sense and a tough agent who will negotiate on your behalf. Now is not the time for timidity, and is definitely not the time for inexperience or less than a full time commitment from your real estate professional.Carolynn Ozar-DiakonBroker/Owner, RESOURCES Real EstateEmail: carolynn@resourcesrealestate.com